So this is your framework. This is the most Decoder thing of all time. You provided a framework for news and pseudo-events. You said the news is history. Here’s Vlad saying prediction markets give you the news faster, in some cases before it even happens. Are these frameworks compatible without conceding that insider information is what makes the prediction market viable?
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Turbulence doesn’t have to be a matter of word-of-mouth. Commercial jets have the capacity to measure and transmit it automatically—using the software Cornman developed at NCAR in the early nineties—and have it relayed to other pilots. The software is freely available to airlines, but most of them balk at the cost of sending and processing the data, and sharing it with others. “It’s not much, but it adds up,” Sharman told me. “A lot of them are saying, ‘Wait a second, we’re barely making it. We can’t afford another hundred thousand on transmission!’ While the ones that are willing to pay for it say, ‘Why should I share my data with somebody else who doesn’t?” So far, only around two thousand planes have been equipped with the software—about one in four planes in the American fleet.